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The Fed is going to have scant and unreliable data to hand

Consequences of the shutdown."There’s many a slip twixt cup and lip". Shakespeare’s aphorism sums up very neatly the likelihood of a near term deal to get America’s government back to work and to raise...

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The Washington impasse may lead to further Euro strength

In an epic reversal of fortunes, the Eurozone is starting to look like a safe haven to some.It’s been a pretty quiet year in the major currency markets. Euro vs the USD is the most actively traded...

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The ECB's Asset Quality Review is a work of art - minimalist art

A masterpiece of reverse engineering.In creating what was a potentially vital part of the project to keep the Euro afloat, the European Central Bank had a mission. They were to design a bank asset...

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The Fed was just trying to keep a low profile

Last Wednesday’s FOMC statement was a classic of the genre, but it won't stop the New Year’s renewed debate over government funding and the debt ceiling from hovering into view.If nothing else, I think...

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The European Central Bank is worried about inflation - shouldn't we be too?

A monetary union without fiscal union, combined with the aftermath of a credit splurge and then vicious retrenchment, was always going to create austere conditions and unemployment - the end of which...

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Bank of England forecasts move more than credibility demands

The Bank is still underestimating the strength of the recovery - and its latest report, puzzlingly, contained large changes to its expectations for both unemployment and inflation.Regular readers of...

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Osborne and Carney should enjoy their day in the sun

The UK fast becoming a stand-out developed economy performer. Growth is heading into 2014 at a healthy 3 to 4 per cent, even in the face of Osborne’s austerity.If last week’s markets were quiet and...

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At the US Federal Reserve, when is a threshold not a threshold? When it's an...

The Federal Open Market Committee is keen to hold fund rates in spite of falling unemployment. It's the first act of a newer, stricter committee.Let’s take the Fed first. When is a threshold not a...

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Don't be mislead by the poor data, the US economy is still in rude health

While current storms will weigh upon February’s statistics, Q2 growth could now hit 4 per cent and US rates could move significantly higher along the curve.Chair of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen...

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New employment data suggests an approaching uplift for the UK economy

The decline since November 2013 was the largest 3 month fall since 1992.The number of people unable to find full-time work appears to have peaked. Photograph: Getty Images. The wisdom of the Bank of...

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